Face Value

I often wonder, what is that quality in mankind that differentiates one person to the other. We see numerous people in our day to day life and subconsciously assay the person. The parameters of this estimation is generally very complex and often beyond the scope of human comprehension.

But, the initial parameter of judgment is the appearance of the person, the looks or the more tangible quality of a human. And, we must agree to the fact that this remains to the most lasting impression of a person. But, we also realize that the real self of a person is not tangible and can only be felt or seen by an in depth interaction of that person. Again, the disadvantage of the intangible qualities is that it cannot be judged by the human mind at the first instance. So, this brings us back to the conclusion that the appearance is the most marketable factor of a human being.


This postulate is also suggested by a study that was carried recently in the USA. The study involved the pictures of the CEOs of the top 25 and bottom 25 companies of the Fortune 1000 list. Now, these pictures were given to people who did not know any one of them and were asked to identify which of them seemed more successful than the others. Surprisingly, 90% of the results matched the group to which each of the individuals belonged. It was also given that the subjects in consideration had no variation in terms of race, gender, etc. This study is definitely substantial to the debate in hand.

So, can we conclude that our success depends upon the fact that how are we perceived at the other end? The answer would be a probable 'yes'. This is also justified by the fact that we often have scenarios where we tag individuals on the basis of their appearance (The way one looks, speaks, carries one's self), generically called the personality of the person. We all must have done this at some point in our lives.

So, it might be sensible to say that what actually matters at the end of the day is the FACE VALUE!!

A very well said phrase: "Your Attitude defines your Altitude. Determine it yourself"

Decoupling Theory

Has the Indian Economy decoupled from that of the US? Will a probable economic recession in the US affect India?

We are quite distant from answering these questions certainly. A justified and informed answer would probably be yes as well as No.

Let’s investigate:

The Indian economy has decoupled from that of the US and will not be affected by the economic recession because:

1. The exports to the US are relatively less and constitute a mere 2% of the GDP. So, a decrease in overseas demand will not spell doom to the economy.
2. The Indian economy is mainly driven by domestic demand and the sound fundamentals of the economy will drive the domestic demand further up.
3. The economy has substantial scope of growth in many domestic sectors like Agriculture, which requires investment and is isolated from the global scenario.


Decoupling is a myth and the Indian economy is bound to be affected by a US recession because:

1. As the global trade becomes more and more integrated, the affect one country has on the other increases significantly. Hence, an open country cannot be isolated from a global recession.
2. As the US inches towards the recession, the FIIs try to go for safer investments and the selling in the financial markets increases causing a downturn of the financial market.
3. India’s growth rate for the year to March 2008 will be 8.7 per cent, down from 9.6per cent the previous year, according to the government’s statistics office, reflecting the dual impact of an appreciating rupee and sharp monetary tightening.

We might say that the Indian economy has not decoupled from that of the US, while the fear of such an economic slowdown in the US is much lesser than it used to be previously. This is primarily due to the self sufficience of the Indian Economy in the recent times. However, no global economy can remain isolated from a US slump as majority of the exports of growing economies remain to be the developed economies like the US.

The SubPrime Crisis

After the dot com bubble burst in the US and followed by the 9/11 strikes in the WTC, The Central banks around the world slashed the interest rates to create liquidity and avoid an acute economic slump. Due to the reduced interest rates, the investors went for investments with higher risk and greater returns. This in turn caused the lenders to mortgage the loans to customers with weak credit history and likely to default. This created a high demand among the consumers and the housing sector went to an all time high in 2005 before it finally collapsed in 2006.



As a result of these activities, the foreclosure activities increased, large lenders and hedge funds declared bankruptcy and soon their was a decline in the economic growth and the consumer spending.

Culprits of the crisis:-
1. Lenders
2. Home Buyers
3. Investment Banks (They worsened the situation)
4. Rating Agencies (A possible conflict of interest)
5. Investor Behavior
6. Hedge Funds

A Stingy Operation

According to Wikipedia,
In law enforcement, a sting operation is a deceptive operation designed to catch a person committing a crime. A typical sting will have a law-enforcement officer or cooperative member of the public play a role as criminal partner or potential victim and go along with a suspect's actions to gather evidence of the suspect's wrongdoing.

In the Indian context, sting operation (investigative journalism) came to the picture in 2000 courtesy tehelka.com when it revealed a critical defense scam and the match fixing scandal. It was a revolution of sorts in the country and the media houses screening them saw their TRPs skyrocket. This was the truth and in the interest of the common man... so this kind of journalism is definitely acceptable.

But, the scenario prevailing today and the motive behind the sting operations is distant to what it was actually intended for. The motive in the majority of the cases is simply a rise in the TRP ratings. So is this morality justified? Given the fact that we've had cases wherein innocents have been victimized.

The revolution of media in the country has led to a cut-throat competition among the peers. This has also led the news channels to exaggerate items those need to be sensitivized. The initiation of such acts happens from rumors and its propagation. As responsible citizens, it is our moral duty to make sure that the propagation of words is authenticated.

It is a boon to us that India is country with such an active media and it has helped the cause of many undoubtedly. But, it has also in cases led to some unwanted and untoward incidents. Like, due to the active media the provocative statements made by irresponsible leaders of our nation are spread, which in turn disturbs harmony.

This needs to be understood is that there is a very fine line between Morality and Activity, and it’s difficult to realize that at first. But, the objective should be that, any action that is undertaken should be in the best interests of the mass of the nation.

FDI in the Retail Sector

FDI stands for Foreign Direct Investment. The issue in hand is that whether "FDI in the retail sector in India beneficial for the aam junta ?"


Yes because:
1. It will lead to a lot of investment into the country which in turn will lead to the development of efficient retailers with international expertise which would improve the scenario for the consumer.
2. It would lead to a competition to the domestic and local retailers which will have to become competitive in order to survive. Again, a boon in the consumer’s perspective.
3. According to the recent WTO mandate, India has to allow FDI in the retail sector otherwise; all the tariff and trade privileges enjoyed by India would be withdrawn.
4. Due to the increased competition at the point of Sales, the competition among the suppliers will also increase, which in turn will increase the profit margins for the sellers and this advantage will be carried to the consumer in a competitive market.
5. The export of retail items will increase which will improve the GDP, as players with international presence will be tied up with the local markets.


No because:
1. It might spell doom for the local kirana shop owners, running with small investments.
2. The international players with expertise and experience can lead to the downfall of the Indian players who are relatively new.
3. The international players (having large market share) might adopt a monopolistic attitude and the prices can be dictated to the consumers.
4. The unorganized retail sector of India amounts to 7-8% of the GDP and often is seen as last resort for individuals. An unemployed person can always open a small kirana shop. The international players might spoil this delicate and complex balance.

Now, I will try to put some explanations and clarifications to negate each of the reasons why FDI should not be allowed:

1. The bigger players will not spell doom to the kirana shop owners because India is a country with very diverse market segments. The bigger players will chiefly target the cities while the kirana shops are prevalent in small cities and villages. Moreover, it’s the same concept like in the electronics sector, SONY and SANTOSH can co-exist, similarly WALLMART and KIRANA can co-exist.

2. To protect the Indian players with relatively new experience, the government can put a cap on the percent of FDI allowed in the retail sector and open it completely when the local players become equally capable and competitive. It’s similar to the Chinese model.

3. While there does exist a threat of the bigger players adopting monopolistic attitude, but this can be overcome by opening the retail sector to more international players which compete with each other and finally the consumer will get the best deal. These factors will even out with time.

4. Even with the onset of the international brands into the market, the existence of the kirana shops should not be hampered as the target market segment of both of these is entirely different. So, we can only expect an increase of the earnings by exports.

Hence, considering all the pros and cons of FDI entering the retail sector, we can conclude that the answer to the question in hand is definetely a Yes with a provident viewpoint in mind.

Disagreements are welcome!

The Reason

For my sweetheart....... I call this the Purple Haze song.....

I'm not a perfect person
There's many things I wish I didn't do
But I continue learning
I never meant to do those things to you
And so I have to say before I go
That I just want you to know

I've found out a reason for me
To change who I used to be
A reason to start over new
and the reason is you

I'm sorry that I hurt you
It's something I must live with everyday
And all the pain I put you through
I wish that I could take it all away
And be the one who catches all your tears
Thats why i need you to hear

I've found out a reason for me
To change who I used to be
A reason to start over new
and the reason is You

and the reason is You.......
and the reason is You.......
and the reason is You.......

I'm not a perfect person
I never meant to do those things to you
And so I have to say before I go
That I just want you to know

I've found out a reason for me
To change who I used to be
A reason to start over new
and the reason is you

I've found a reason to show
A side of me you didn't know
A reason for all that I do
And the reason is you

(Lyrics by Hoobastank.....)

A Dilemma...

When I reach the Food Court of my organization routinely to have my lunch, every time I spot some small kids working around. That is certainly not a pleasant sight...... But ponder on this.....

Why does that child has to work at all, may be the child's parents are not good enough to feed him or may be may be the parents are unable to see the bigger picture to realize that education is more important than earning a meager housekeeper's salary. What ever the reason might be... the child does not have an option.

Now, the employer has an option, the option is to avoid such kind of an employment. But, will this step improve the situation? ..... The financial status of the child and his family is certainly not at par, which is the reason that the child needs to support his family. And, now if the family loses the share of the income that the child was capable of earning, certainly the chance of that child reaching a primary school diminishes to a greater extent. This is ostensibly a vicious circle, isn’t it? Or an infinitely iterating loop?

The solution to this problem lies in the approach to this. We need to break this down into a number of sub problems and deal with each of those independently. Some of the causes of this problem as per my perception are:

1. Population of the country.
The rise of the population of our country is attributed to the fact that we are unable to do family planning at a grass root level. The majority of our population is unaware and ignorant of the responsibilities that come across with the offspring. The rural population of the country sees the offspring simply as an increase in the number of working hands, which would result to increase in the overall family income. We need to educate people in this regard.

2. Sporadic urbanization of the rural population.
Huge percentage of the rural population that migrates to cities are lured and attracted by the false promises that are kept in store for them. A feeling of "Bed Of Roses in the city" largely prevails in the rural household. This unaware percentage of people needs to realize the importance of a critical skill, that enables the sustenance in the cities.

3. Literacy rate in the rural regions.
This is arguably the most critical reason for all the issues faced by the Indian Economy at any point in time. It is the duty of the stable and affluent population of the country to educate the less privileged portion of the population. We see many NGO'S and non-profit organization take this up, but given the rural and uneducated population of the country, this effort needs to ramp up.

4. Ignorance of the higher strata of the society.
We have been blessed with a lot of responsible and sensitive citizens in our country, but what needs to be done is to propagate this "well doing" attitude. We still are in the stage of a developing country and our country would need the effort of each and every individual to cross this threshold. It is up to the higher strata of the society to realize this, because it’s easier and more logical for the up trodden to initiate this and take the whole nation in its stride.

5. Inability of the current infrastructure to create sustenance enabling skills.
Our governance needs to realize that monetary support is not the solution to the poverty in the country. After all, how much can a nation's working population support the unemployed and to what degree? What is needed is an infrastructure that creates skills that enable people to earn a living.

We have many hinderances to the execution of any plan or strategy in the country, mainly due to reasons like Corruption, Demographics, Diversity, etc. But, we cant sit and relax with these thoughts in our minds, we need to rise to the occasion and Deliver.......

Existence?

Sometimes I wonder, where do we actually exist? What is does our existence actually mean?

Take into account the fact that earth is the only planet that has advancement of life to the highest degree (thats what we believe).

We humans get worried and tensed about issues that are very significant to us, lost 200K in the stock market crash, IBM is firing employees, US Economy is approaching recession, etc, these are certainly cruicial. But, is it worth the importance that it is given? Are we overlooking the bigger picture of things? Who knows that tomorrow an asteroid hits earth and the life on earth extinguishes, its the same threat that all existing species face at any point in time, including the homosapien race. In that case where is the stock market, where is IBM and where is the US Economy?

I accept the fact that we cant think of this possibility and simply stagnate our lives. But, try to realize the crime and disharmony that has emerged just in the race to earn money. Is that justified? People earn more and more money to satisfy their desires, new home, gadgets, gizmos, etc, Is that not too naive? Certainly so if we consider the bigger picture.

Its the same human race that is facing brutatities like animals in parts of Africa and its the same human specie that owns the Hilton Chain of Hotels (no offence meant, just a comparison). Do we have such inconsistency in any other race than humans? Answer will be No. Then, the thought that logically follows is that something is fundamentally wrong, with our attitude, with our thinking and our approach towards objective in life.

A question that comes to my mind is that, Are we living to Earn or Earing to live? Certainly a thought worthy question. Even if someone thinks that competition threshhold should be till the point where sustenence is enabled, he might not be able to accomplish the same. The reason bieng that, all of us are so busy following the conventional trends that no one even that the time to ponder about the reason for the quest and the person who stops to ponder is left behind in humanitarian terms or fallacies, as one might term it.

I dont have any problems whatsoever with the desire to earn and live lavish, but It does irk me when that desire comes at the cost of other fellow humans. And, If at all, that scenario arrives, the basic meaning of our existence and superiority of the human race is lost.

The intention of this piece of writting is not to be judgemental, But to provoke the thought process in this direction. I might appear to be cynical, but certainly not insensitive.

A rendezvous with the Fin Min...

What is India?
1. Second largest and fastest growing Economy after China.
2. Growth Rate over 7 percent over the past few years,
3. About 70 percent of the population below 35 years of age and 50 percent below 25 years of age.
4. India has a growing middle class with more than 250 million.
5. Among the world’s largest energy consumers.

When and Why did India liberalize at all?
In the early 90's, during the Narsimha Rao governance, when our current PM was the Finance Minister and Our current FM was the commerce minister.
1. India faced a financial crisis at that point in time, a crisis of the balance of payments.
2. Basically, a combination of the right people at the right positions at the right time. Individuals who understood the economy to put the fundamentals strong.

What is the history of the Indian Economy's growth saga?
1. India has had an average growth rate of 6.5 percent in the post liberalization period.
2. We have had phases when we have recorded more than 7.5 percent growth like during mid 90's and post 2003.
3. On a provident perspective a minimum of 7 percent growth should be recorded, with a target of 8 percent to be optimistic. Then we can have an average growth of 7.7 percent for the next 15 years.

What is India's Economic position globally?
1. USA
2. China
3. India / Japan

In the next 50 years, China would be a very important determinant of India's global position and on whether India has to become the largest economy of the world.

India has to work on the below metrics to be an economic superpower:
1. Per Capita Income:
A key factor and a challenge faced by the Indian Economy. The reason that raising the per capita income in India and China is a challenge because of the population of both the countries. This is the cause why the growth of PCI will not be as rapid as a less populous country like the USA.

2. Purchasing Power Parity:
This is again a challenge as the PPP of India and China when multiplied by a factor of 4 or 5 equals that of the USA.

The worry of the Indian Economy - Poverty - How to Deal with it?
1. Continue to grow at a rate of 7 to 8 percent each year.
2. Produce surplus that helps us deal with poverty.
3. Increase the Per Capita Income of the country.
4. Focus on basic needs like Education, Sanitation, Roads, Healthcare, etc.

What role does Energy play in the growth of the Indian Economy?
Very significant Role:
1. Increase the generation capacity by 10000 MW each tear for the next 10-15 years.
2. This would lead to the growth in the Infrastructure.
3. In the present scenario, Only India and China have investment opportunities in the Energy sector in the next 10 - 15 years.

Characteristics of Indian Economy?
Strengths:
1. Human Resources - India produces more graduates than a country like US.
2. Size of working population and age would continue to increase for the next 20 years before it starts to decline. This is an advantage that China does not have.
3. India is a democracy and no views are stifled in the country.

Challenges:
1. Financial Resources.
2. Infrastructure.
3. Poverty - Create Jobs - Provide education - Investments.

Key Determinants:
1. Investments (FDI and FII).
2. Direct Investments to Infrastructure.


100 days of paid employment in villages. Why?
It is a safety net that is provided to the agricultural workers. It’s a plan to avoid and minimize the suicide rates in the country. This is done in view that 250 million in our country earn less than 1 USD a day.

Can India work with Pakistan?
It certainly has initiated the process:
1. it’s on the list of most favored nation and does not discriminate Pakistan on any account.
2. India is willing to export products and services to Pakistan.
3. India is ready to comply with the trade agreement between the two nations.
4. India is in favor is resumption of Bus and Rail link to Pakistan.
While Pakistan in turn does not reciprocate in a manner congenial to harmonial relations.

With Iran?
1. There are differences with Iran on the nuclear issues.
2. Iran must comply with the international obligations (Nuclear Proliferation Treaty).

What is India's stand on the Nuclear Energy?
1. Every country has the right to access Nuclear energy, but only for civilian purposes.
2. Nuclear power is the possible solution to the growing global energy demands as fossil fuels are exhausted. France and Japan already depend on Nuclear power.
3. Too many counties should not have abundant access to nuclear power as the risk of misuse of nuclear power is always there.

India's stand on Oil prices?
1. Oil prices are outrageous at this moment and it impoverishes the oil importing developing nations. Even the developed nations are feeling the pinch.
2. The objective seems to impoverish the importing nations, very similar to colonial regimes.
3. A gap has been created between the supply and demand by putting a cap on the amount of oil being exported. The only motive is to make super profit.
4. The intention should be to make sustainable profits in the current supply demand scenario. Oil prices should be profitable and not exploitable to importers.
5. Investment on newer oil production techniques and exploration should increase.

Are we witnessing a shift of Power: US --> Asia?
1. No, US still is the worlds leading economy.
2. The European Union also leads when seen collectively.
3. Japan lead the pact in Asia before India and China opened up.
4. If US, Europe, China, India and Japan all become superpowers, we would witness the development of mankind as 4/7th of the world's population would be on the prosperous side.
5. This would also enable centers like Brazil, South Africa, etc. to emerge as potential power centers.

Brighter side of the Indian Population?
1. It will consume more and produce more.
2. 20 years from now, the Indian workforce strength will be 800 million.
3. One of seven on earth is an Indian.

Indo - US Relations?
1. At its best, two way trade has increased like never before.
2. American work is being outsourced to India due to cost and skill parameters.
3. If outsourcing is stopped, the import of Indian goods and services will increase and immigration to US will increase.
4. US is also doing Indian research. Patenting, design, etc. mainly due to skill factors. So, a growing India outsourcers work to the US in a way.

Difference between Chinese and Indian Economy?
1. Chinese economy is driven by foreign investment, while the Indian economy is driven by Domestic demand.
2. Exports play a very major role in the Chinese economy while it plays a marginal role in the Indian economy.
3. China is a manufacturing hub, India not so. While, when FDI is taken into account, India's a better bet.

Indian Telecom Sector?
1. 50 percent growth of cell phone users.
2. By the next two years, we'll have 250 million telephone users.

India's growing sectors?
1. Roads
2. Power
3. Exports and Imports
4. Bank Credits.

Is India secular in the true sense?
1. India has the second largest Islam population in the world, after Indonesia.
2. People trigger speeches and offensive writings provoking disharmony.
3. Commonality exists between religions across states like Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, etc.

Science in India?
1. Huge number of scientists sent to other countries.
2. Facilities and research opportunities better in some other countries.

AIDS in India?
1. The threat of AIDS in India has been accepted, we were in the denial mode previously.
2. National AIDS Control Organization has been formed for the betterment of the situation.
3. AIDS discussions should be transparent and people should be made aware of the consequences.
4. Voluntary help efforts are required.
5. Public health expenses for AIDS have been increased.